cfr-design-points
ASSESSMENT dossier

CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016)

ASSESSMENT ASSESSMENT // CFR DESIGN Also: CFR design points, CFR TX, CFR nominal conservative

01 Executive_Summary

ASSESSMENT: The CFR '2,000-ton TX' was a DESIGN CONCEPT, not a built prototype. McGuire's 2016 UCI presentation showed TWO design points: NOMINAL: 200 MW Thermal, 5.2m diameter x 15.2m long, 230 metric tons, 1.4T, 9 MA mirror current. CONSERVATIVE: 200 MW Thermal, 10.5m diameter x 30.5m long, 1,900 metric tons, 0.84T, 20 MA mirror current. Lockheed believed weight could be reduced to 200 tons. The actual experimental devices were much smaller: T4 (0.33 m² plasma, 2 m³ chamber), T4B (2m x 1m, ~20 tons, 13 coils), T5 (under construction July 2019, 'significantly larger'). Development path: T4→T5→T6→T7→T8→TX. T4 results (482 shots): n=10^16-10^17 m^-3, Te=10-25 eV, τE=4-100 μsec — 3-4 orders of magnitude from reactor conditions (need ~10^20 m^-3, ~14,000 eV). The '2,000-ton' figure was always the conservative design point, not evidence of failure. This REMOVES the strongest evidence AGAINST the hypothesis from Round 8.

03 Deep_Dive_Intelligence

Overview

ASSESSMENT: The CFR '2,000-ton TX' was a DESIGN CONCEPT, not a built prototype. McGuire's 2016 UCI presentation showed TWO design points: NOMINAL: 200 MW Thermal, 5.2m diameter x 15.2m long, 230 metric tons, 1.4T, 9 MA mirror current. CONSERVATIVE: 200 MW Thermal, 10.5m diameter x 30.5m long, 1,900 metric tons, 0.84T, 20 MA mirror current. Lockheed believed weight could be reduced to 200 tons. The actual experimental devices were much smaller: T4 (0.33 m² plasma, 2 m³ chamber), T4B (2m x 1m, ~20 tons, 13 coils), T5 (under construction July 2019, 'significantly larger'). Development path: T4→T5→T6→T7→T8→TX. T4 results (482 shots): n=10^16-10^17 m^-3, Te=10-25 eV, τE=4-100 μsec — 3-4 orders of magnitude from reactor conditions (need ~10^20 m^-3, ~14,000 eV). The '2,000-ton' figure was always the conservative design point, not evidence of failure. This REMOVES the strongest evidence AGAINST the hypothesis from Round 8.

Entity Type: Assessment — CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016) is an analytical assessment synthesizing multiple data points.

Research Findings

CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016) appears in 5 research analysis documents:

AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025:

Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025

Source PDF: [AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025](/archive/AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025) Date range: 1972-2025 Source org: AFRL

Summary

The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement to solicit research in 'Air Delivered...

AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025:

Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025

Source PDF: [AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025](/archive/AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025) Date range: 1972-2025 Source org: AFRL

Summary

The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement to solicit research in 'Air Delivered...

AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024:

Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024

Source PDF: [AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024](/archive/AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_BAA_2024) Date range: 1972-2024 Source org: AFRL

Summary

The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement in 2024 to solicit research a...

AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024:

Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024

Source PDF: [AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024](/archive/AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_BAA_2024) Date range: 1972-2024 Source org: AFRL

Summary

The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement in 2024 to solicit research a...

AFRL LANL FRCHX 2016:

Findings: AFRL LANL FRCHX 2016

Source PDF: [AFRL LANL FRCHX 2016](/archive/AFRL_LANL_FRCHX_2016) Date range: 1981-2022 Source org: LANL

Summary

This programmatic analysis investigates the 2014-2016 closeout of the Field-Reversed Configuration Heating Experiment (FRCHX), a joint initiative by the Air Force ...

Source Documents

Intelligence derived from 4 source documents:

  • UCI — McGuire CT2016 presentation (physics.uci.edu)
  • BESA Center — Lockheed Martin CFR analysis
  • Lyncean Group — Lockheed Martin CFR presentation
  • The War Zone — T5 construction report (July 2019)

06 Research_Findings (5)

Finding AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025.md

# Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025 **Source PDF:** `AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025.pdf` **Date range:** 1972-2025 **Source org:** AFRL ## Summary The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement to solicit research in 'Air Delivered Effects,' focusing on advanced airframe systems, bioprincipic sensing, and autonomous munitions technology. Updated in 2025, the document outlines a five-year solicitation for basic and applied rese

View Source PDF → AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025
technology AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025.md

# Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025 **Source PDF:** `AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025.pdf` **Date range:** 1972-2025 **Source org:** AFRL ## Summary The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement to solicit research in 'Air Delivered Effects,' focusing on advanced airframe systems, bioprincipic sensing, and autonomous munitions technology. Updated in 2025, the document outlines a five-year solicitation for basic and applied rese

View Source PDF → AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025
Finding AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_BAA_2024.md

# Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024 **Source PDF:** `AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_BAA_2024.pdf` **Date range:** 1972-2024 **Source org:** AFRL ## Summary The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement in 2024 to solicit research and development proposals for conventional munitions technology under the 'Air Delivered Effects' program. The initiative covers basic and applied research in areas such as agile weapon airframes, aut

View Source PDF → AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024
technology AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_BAA_2024.md

# Findings: AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024 **Source PDF:** `AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_BAA_2024.pdf` **Date range:** 1972-2024 **Source org:** AFRL ## Summary The Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate (AFRL/RW) issued this Broad Agency Announcement in 2024 to solicit research and development proposals for conventional munitions technology under the 'Air Delivered Effects' program. The initiative covers basic and applied research in areas such as agile weapon airframes, aut

View Source PDF → AFRL Air Delivered Effects BAA 2024
Finding AFRL_LANL_FRCHX_2016.md

# Findings: AFRL LANL FRCHX 2016 **Source PDF:** `AFRL_LANL_FRCHX_2016.pdf` **Date range:** 1981-2022 **Source org:** LANL ## Summary This programmatic analysis investigates the 2014-2016 closeout of the Field-Reversed Configuration Heating Experiment (FRCHX), a joint initiative by the Air Force Research Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory. The report concludes with high confidence that the technology was not terminated but successfully transitioned to a classified program at Lockh

View Source PDF → AFRL LANL FRCHX 2016

07 Key_Findings

  • ▸ Entity Type: Assessment — CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016) is an analytical assessment synthesizing multiple data points.
  • ▸ AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025:
  • ▸ Source PDF: `AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025.pdf`
  • ▸ AFRL Air Delivered Effects 2025:
  • ▸ Source PDF: `AFRL_Air_Delivered_Effects_2025.pdf`

10 FAQ

What is CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016)? ▾
ASSESSMENT: The CFR '2,000-ton TX' was a DESIGN CONCEPT, not a built prototype. McGuire's 2016 UCI presentation showed TWO design points: NOMINAL: 200 MW Thermal, 5.2m diameter x 15.2m long, 230 metric tons, 1.4T, 9 MA mirror current. CONSERVATIVE: 200 MW Thermal, 10.5m diameter x 30.5m long, 1,900 metric tons, 0.84T, 20 MA mirror current. Lockheed believed weight could be reduced to 200 tons. The actual experimental devices were much smaller: T4 (0.33 m² plasma, 2 m³ chamber), T4B (2m x 1m, ~20 tons, 13 coils), T5 (under construction July 2019, 'significantly larger'). Development path: T4→T5→T6→T7→T8→TX. T4 results (482 shots): n=10^16-10^17 m^-3, Te=10-25 eV, τE=4-100 μsec — 3-4 orders of magnitude from reactor conditions (need ~10^20 m^-3, ~14,000 eV). The '2,000-ton' figure was always the conservative design point, not evidence of failure. This REMOVES the strongest evidence AGAINST the hypothesis from Round 8.
What source documents are available for CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016)? ▾
4 source documents are available in the research archive, including primary source PDFs from defense research collections. These documents provide the evidentiary basis for the intelligence assessment.
What does the deep dive analysis reveal about CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016)? ▾
The deep dive intelligence assessment provides a comprehensive analysis of CFR Reactor Design Points (McGuire 2016), covering strategic role, network connections, and operational significance. The analysis is derived from 4 primary source documents and cross-referenced with the network graph.

Source_Documents 4 FILES

UCI — McGuire CT2016 presentation (physics.uci.edu)
PDF Archive →
BESA Center — Lockheed Martin CFR analysis
PDF Archive →
Lyncean Group — Lockheed Martin CFR presentation
PDF Archive →
The War Zone — T5 construction report (July 2019)
PDF Archive →

External_References 4 REFS

UCI — McGuire CT2016 presentation (physics.uci.edu) ref
BESA Center — Lockheed Martin CFR analysis ref
Lyncean Group — Lockheed Martin CFR presentation ref
The War Zone — T5 construction report (July 2019) ref

External_Primary_Sources 6

patent
US Patent 9,947,420 B2 — Magnetic field plasma confinement for compact fusion power
patent
US Patent 9,959,942 — Compact fusion reactor
patent
US Patent 9,502,202 B2 — Compact cylindrical plasma fusion reactor with coherent beam emission
news 2023-08-30
Skunk Works Halted Nuclear Fusion Effort Before 2021 — Aviation Week
Steve Trimble
reference
Lockheed Martin Compact Fusion Reactor — Wikipedia
corporate
Compact Fusion — Lockheed Martin
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ID: cfr-design-points
Type: assessment
Region: intel-base
Last updated: 2026-08-09